Predicting and planning for the future is an inherently uncertain exercise. In the midst of unfolding health and environmental crises, forecasting the implications of different types of interventions is important but precarious. With exhortations from governments to ‘flatten the curve,’ simulation modelling has recently gained prominence in public consciousness as a potent tool informing COVID policies. The simplicity of the models stands in stark contrast to the complexity of the challenges at hand. This panel explores ways for STS to interpret and inform debates around ‘modelling’ practice and public understandings of models for the future. How and why are simulation models so seductive? How are models shaping concepts of ‘self’ and ‘future’? What kinds of knowledges and assumptions are built into these speculative exercises and what (or who) is left out? Can models help build ‘good relations’ between governments and citizens, or between diverse stakeholders approaching complex problems?

The panel invites papers that engage with critical approaches to modelling practice and models as symbols circulating in complex systems. We also encourage papers that explore alternative methods for engaging in forecasting and scenario building that may better be able to encompass complex intervention dynamics and marginalized futures.